El Niño hasn’t even landed yet. That hasn’t stopped it from moving commodity markets around the world.
The hard-to-predict climate pattern, when powerful, can usher in intense drought or rainfall, upend output from the world’s breadbasket regions, and whipsaw the prices of commodities. Brazilian sugar producers, American grain farmers and international traders are bracing for the phenomenon. But the cyclical shift in ocean temperatures can just as easily be a dud.
El Niño occurs when trade winds moving west across the Pacific Ocean weaken and warmer-than-normal water sloshes toward the west coast of the Americas. Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday gave 80% odds of at least a moderate El Niño appearing in the Northern Hemisphere by year’s end, with a 55% chance of a strong event.
Farm sector production expenses—including expenses associated with operator dwellings—are forecast to increase by $18.2 #billion (4.1 percent) from 2022 to reach $459.5 #billion in calendar year 2023. When adjusted for inflation, production expenses are forecast to increase by 1.3 percent from 2022 to 2023, remaining below the record-high level of 2014.
Source: U.S Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service